Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011

Outlook

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Graphics

Tropical Storm MATTHEW 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 14:57:47 GMT

Tropical Storm MATTHEW 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 14:53:35 GMT


Tropical Storm MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of
Guadeloupe and Martinique.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe and Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands

Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move
through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and
move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the notheast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over
the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin
the next few hours and continue into this evening.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and
southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.  These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north
into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 281457
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016               
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  19(23)  16(39)   6(45)   1(46)
PT GALLINAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   9(16)   3(19)   X(19)
PT GALLINAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CURACAO        34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)
CURACAO        50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
CURACAO        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  20(32)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)  20(37)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)  10(24)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   6(16)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   3(19)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   3( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
AVES           34  9  14(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
DOMINICA       34 32   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
MARTINIQUE     34 69   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MARTINIQUE     50 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT LUCIA    50 47   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
SAINT VINCENT  50  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARBADOS       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARBADOS       50 43   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
GRENADA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 281453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FRENCH ISLANDS OF
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS, DOMINICA, AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA, BARBADOS, ST. VINCENT, AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN BONAIRE...CURACAO...ARUBA...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  60.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......180NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  60.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  59.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.6N  63.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...160NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.9N  66.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.9N  69.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.8N  71.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N  74.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N  75.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N  76.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




 
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