Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011

Outlook

Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics

Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 02:55:51 GMT

Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 03:09:13 GMT


Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 26

Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016

000
WTNT32 KNHC 290245
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016

...GASTON STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 55.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gaston is
stationary, but a slow northward motion is expected overnight and
on Monday.  A turn toward the northeast or east-northeast with some
increase in forward speed is forecast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some slow weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

000
WTNT44 KNHC 290253
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Flight-level wind data from an earlier NOAA reconnaissance mission
along with WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Key West indicate that
the depression had been moving southwestward between 1800-0000 UTC.
However, the most recent radar data and nearby surface observations
suggest that the cyclone has now turned toward the west. The last
reliable wind data from the NOAA WP-3 recon aircraft supported an
intensity of 30 kt, and that intensity is being maintained for this
advisory given that the radar and satellite signatures haven't
improved. The central pressure of 1007 mb is based on a reliable
observation from ship WMKN, located just north of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 270/08 kt. Now that deep convection
has waned, the system has turned westward and this motion is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This short term
motion is supported by NOAA recon dropsonde data on the return leg
home, which indicated that 500 mb heights were 10-20 meters higher
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico than what the global models
have been forecasting. After that time, the global and regional
models are in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone slowing
down and turning toward the west-northwest and then northward in the
36- to 48-hour periods as the depression moves around the western
periphery of a narrow subtropical ridge that is expected to be
located over the Bahamas and South Florida at that time. By 72 hours
and beyond, the tropical cyclone is forecast to lift out and
accelerate to the northeast as a shortwave trough over the western
Great Lakes digs southeastward and captures the depression. The new
NHC forecast track has been shifted to the right of the previous
advisory track mainly due to the more southerly initial position,
and lies a little to the left of the consensus model TVCN.

Strong vertical shear that has been plaguing this system for the
past week is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt in
18-24 hours, which should allow for more organized deep convection
to develop. However, the southerly low-level inflow will still be
disrupted by the terrain of western Cuba until the cyclone moves
west of 85W longitude, which will then provide a straight trajectory
across the Yucatan Channel and into the low-level center. By 36
hours and beyond, the depression will moving over SSTs greater
than 30C and the light vertical wind shear is expected to back
around from a northerly to a southwesterly direction, which usually
favors more significant intensification. However, dry air in the
mid-/upper-levels noted in the recent 0000 UTC soundings from Key
West northward to the Gulf coast is expected be entrained into the
northwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation by 48 hours
and beyond, and this appears to be the main inhibiting factor to
strengthening by the global models. Given these mixed signals, the
NHC intensity forecast remains conservative and closely follows the
intensity model IVCN. The confidence in the intensity forecast
remains lower than usual for this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 23.4N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 23.5N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 23.8N  85.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 24.4N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 25.1N  87.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 27.0N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 29.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 31.2N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
FONT14 KNHC 290255
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016               
0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   8(19)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   7(23)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   9(22)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   7(24)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   6(20)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   2(14)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   2(16)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)  10(19)   3(22)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)   5(27)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)   5(27)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   3(21)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  14(24)   3(27)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  14(16)  15(31)   3(34)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   2(21)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  13(16)   9(25)   1(26)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  10(14)   4(18)   X(18)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
HAVANA         34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

000
WTNT24 KNHC 290254
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
0300 UTC MON AUG 29 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  82.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  82.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  82.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.8N  85.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.4N  86.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.1N  87.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.0N  86.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N  82.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.2N  78.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  82.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 



 
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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011
Atlantic hurricane 2011 season tracking center which provides up-to-date information on the forecast position, wind speeds, and outlook with radar maps and images, as well as alerts and advisories for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depression impacted cities and states.