Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011

Outlook

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics

Hurricane CRISTOBAL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:37:24 GMT

Hurricane CRISTOBAL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 13:24:46 GMT


Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

000
WTNT34 KNHC 290836
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

...CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.1N 51.7W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 49 MPH...80 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265
MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 290839
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has begun extratropical transition.  The cloud pattern has
become much less symmetric and central convection has decreased,
along with dry air eroding the southern flank of the cyclone. Dvorak
classifications are a little lower and support an intensity of about
70 kt for this advisory.  The hurricane has now moved across the
north wall of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters.  This
change in environment usually causes a significant weakening of
a tropical cyclone, but in this case strong baroclinic forcing
should delay the cyclone's demise.  Post-tropical Cristobal will
likely remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north
Atlantic through early Sunday. Beyond that time, the system is
forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland
and lose its identity.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and the motion is now
055/43 kt with Cristobal moving rapidly within the mid-latitude
flow.  Dynamical track guidance indicates that this general motion
will continue during the next couple of days with a decrease
in forward speed and a small leftward turn due to Cristobal
interacting with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or
two.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 42.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 45.4N  45.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/0600Z 49.3N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1800Z 52.9N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0600Z 59.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

000
FONT14 KNHC 290836
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 290835
TCMAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N  51.7W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  43 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 120SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT.......190NE 230SE 220SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 260SE 660SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N  51.7W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  53.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 45.4N  45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 140SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 49.3N  39.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 140SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 52.9N  32.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 160SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 250SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 59.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 200SW 160NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N  51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





 
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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011
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