Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011

Outlook

Tropical Storm FRED Graphics

Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 17:45:44 GMT

Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 15:06:47 GMT


Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 3A

Issued at 200 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301744
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
200 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS NEARING THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 20.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 20.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Fred is expected to move through the Cape Verde
Islands on Monday through early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Fred is forecast to become a hurricane before
reaching the Cape Verde Islands on Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area by late tonight.  Hurricane
conditions are expected within a portion of the warning area by
Monday morning.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 301450
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated
with the tropical cyclone continues to organize.  A curved band of
convection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent
images show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier
WindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core.
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on
these the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening
during the next 24 to 36 hours.  During that time, there will
be sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain
low, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures
of 27 to 28C.  Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and
the SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within
24 hours.  Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF
models, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through
the Cape Verde Islands.  After 36 hours, lower sea surface
temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable
environment should cause weakening.

Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is
forecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical
ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands.  In a couple of days,
the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to
turn west-northwestward.  As Fred weakens and become a more shallow
cyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected.  The NHC track is near the consensus of the
ECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours.  Later in the period, the NHC
forecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track
is along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with
the ECMWF.

Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological
Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning
for those islands.

Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated
product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the
Cape Verde Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 13.4N  19.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 14.3N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 15.7N  23.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.2N  25.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.3N  27.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 19.5N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 21.0N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

000
FONT11 KNHC 301447
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 19.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 301447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS REPLACES THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  19.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  19.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  19.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.3N  21.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.7N  23.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N  25.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.3N  27.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.5N  31.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N  39.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  19.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




 
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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011
Atlantic hurricane 2011 season tracking center which provides up-to-date information on the forecast position, wind speeds, and outlook with radar maps and images, as well as alerts and advisories for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depression impacted cities and states.