Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011

Outlook

Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics

Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 08:50:59 GMT

Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 09:05:44 GMT


Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

000
WTNT31 KNHC 180849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 45.3W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST.  EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H...BUT A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  AN EVEN SLOWER
EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  EDOUARD IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
CANADA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH OF FLORIDA.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 28

Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

000
WTNT41 KNHC 180849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014

An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,
solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep
convection.  The infrared satellite presentation has not changed
appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at
75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some
atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its
convective structure.  However, the SHIPS guidance shows the
instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over
30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a
faster weakening trend later today.  The hostile conditions should
cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,
and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a
post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus.

The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has
an initial motion of 065/24 kt.  Edouard is moving around the
northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central
Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward
around this feature during the next 3 days.  Most of the track
models are in good agreement on this scenario.  The two main
outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after
12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race
northeastward ahead of a cold front.  The updated NHC track forecast
is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a
little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 39.6N  45.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

000
FONT11 KNHC 180849
PWSAT1
                                                                    
HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014               
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)  14(18)   4(22)   X(22)
SANTA CRUZ AZO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONTA DELGADA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

000
WTNT21 KNHC 180848
TCMAT1
 
HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  45.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  24 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 330SE 350SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N  45.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N  46.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 170SE 160SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N  45.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 



 
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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011
Atlantic hurricane 2011 season tracking center which provides up-to-date information on the forecast position, wind speeds, and outlook with radar maps and images, as well as alerts and advisories for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depression impacted cities and states.