Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011

Outlook

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Graphics

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 02:37:00 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Oct 2014 03:04:43 GMT


Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

000
WTNT34 KNHC 230236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 90.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST.  THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH
...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER LAND
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.   THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 230236
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening.  Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast.  The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time.  The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula.  If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days.  The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 18.9N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

000
FONT14 KNHC 230236
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014               
0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BELIZE         34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 230235
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  90.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  90.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  91.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  90.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





 
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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2011
Atlantic hurricane 2011 season tracking center which provides up-to-date information on the forecast position, wind speeds, and outlook with radar maps and images, as well as alerts and advisories for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depression impacted cities and states.