Home / Hurricane Tracking

Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2017

Outlook

Tropical Depression Harvey Graphics

Tropical Depression Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:39:38 GMT

Tropical Depression Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 21:24:04 GMT


Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 192034
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear.  The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone.  Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic.  The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening.  On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19.  There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track.   A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight.  At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 14.1N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Depression Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   2(24)   X(24)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  20(26)   X(26)   X(26)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 192033
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.  WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


 

NHC Atlantic Ops on Twitter

twitter icon

Tropical Depression #Harvey Advisory 10: Harvey Weakens to a Tropical Depression. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

Aug 19, 2017, 4:34 pm EDT replyretweetfavorite
twitter icon

Tropical Storm #Harvey Advisory 9: Harvey Still a Tropical Storm But Less Organized Than Yesterday. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

Aug 19, 2017, 10:48 am EDT replyretweetfavorite
twitter icon

Tropical Storm #Harvey Advisory 8: Heavy Rainfall Threat Today in the Abc Islands From Harvey. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

Aug 19, 2017, 4:42 am EDT replyretweetfavorite
twitter icon

Tropical Storm #Harvey Advisory 7: Harvey Continues Westward Over the Eastern Caribbean Sea. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Aug 18, 2017, 10:34 pm EDT replyretweetfavorite

No NHC active statments at this time

Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 10
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
Location: 14.1°N 70.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Resources

Bookmark and Share