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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2018

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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics

Subtropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 08:33:46 GMT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 09:22:06 GMT


Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

123 
WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 44.1W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 44.1 West.  The
storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A
significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near
Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

645 
WTNT45 KNHC 160832
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in
curved bands around the center.  The circulation of the system is
becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is
wrapping into the western portion of the system.  The initial
wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as
it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind
shear environment for only another 12 hours.  After that time,
the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move
into an environment of higher shear.  These conditions should cause
Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when
the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C.  The
post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part
to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near
the United Kingdom this weekend.

The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving
north-northeastward at 11 kt.  A turn to the northeast with a
significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing
the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The
models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 40.8N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 42.4N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 45.0N  37.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  17/1800Z 47.8N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0600Z 50.6N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

130 
FONT15 KNHC 160832
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

796 
WTNT25 KNHC 160831
TCMAT5
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  44.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 160SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  44.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N  44.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N  41.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.0N  37.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 47.8N  31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 100SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 50.6N  23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 140SE 120SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N  44.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

NOAA Communications on Twitter

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Stern of World War II U.S. destroyer discovered off remote Alaskan island by @NOAA-supported scientists… https://t.co/dYgkiyjjA6

Aug 15, 2018 replyretweetfavorite

NHC Atlantic Ops on Twitter

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Subtropical Storm #Ernesto Advisory 5: Ernesto Changes Little in Strength. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

Aug 16, 2018 replyretweetfavorite
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Subtropical Storm #Ernesto Advisory 4: Ernesto Moving North-Northeastward Over the North-Central Atlantic. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

Aug 16, 2018 replyretweetfavorite
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Subtropical Storm #Ernesto Advisory 3: Ernesto Moving Northward Over the Central Atlantic. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Aug 15, 2018 replyretweetfavorite
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Subtropical Storm #Ernesto Advisory 2: Subtropical Depression Strengthens Into Subtropical Storm Ernesto. https://t.co/VqHn0uj6EM

Aug 15, 2018 replyretweetfavorite

No NHC active statments at this time

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 5
...ERNESTO CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...
Location: 40.8°N 44.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

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