Flash Floods and Temperature Swings Expected Oct 7-9

CONUS — We have a serious weather alert for the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians as heavy rain may lead to flash flooding today and tonight. In the Southwest, especially New Mexico, there’s also a chance for scattered flash flooding.

Rain and Thunderstorms Across the East

A cold front is slowly moving across the east-central U.S., bringing with it rain and thunderstorms. This weather system is expected to reach the Eastern Seaboard by Tuesday. Gulf Coast moisture is mixing with the front, causing heavy rains from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valleys, Appalachians, and down to the Southeast. Expect the heaviest rain of about 2 to 4 inches around Kentucky. There’s a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash floods in the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through tonight. The rain will head eastward with the front, reaching the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday morning. Showers may continue in the Carolinas, while Florida might see more showers and storms over the next few days.

Southwest Braces for Rain and Flash Floods

The cold front’s backside will stall in the Southwest with some low-pressure waves. Tropical Pacific moisture is also coming north, making rain and thunderstorms likely there. New Mexico is under a level 2 out of 4 risk for heavy rain and potential flash flooding today. Areas with burn scars and urban centers are most vulnerable. Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather in central New Mexico means isolated high winds and hail could happen. This kicks off several days of rain and storms in the Southwest, thanks to moisture from Hurricane Priscilla in the eastern Pacific.

Temperature Swings with the Front

The cold front creates a divide, with warmer temperatures to its south and east, and cooler ones behind it. Expect a warm day from the Gulf Coast towards the Eastern Seaboard. The Northeast might see temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, reaching around 80 degrees, with some daily records possible. The front’s passage by Wednesday will bring temperatures to normal. Behind the front, some areas in the north-central U.S. like Minnesota and Wisconsin have freeze warnings and frost advisories until Wednesday. Highs will only be in the 60s in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, which is 15 to 20 degrees below average. Cooler temperatures will start moderating by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Intermountain West will warm up, but the Pacific Northwest should cool with a new cold front arriving, bringing light precipitation and potential snow in the highest parts of the Cascades.