Tropical Activity Brings Rain and Storms - 09-28-2026 to 10-02-2026
Tropical Storm Belt — We're looking at a busy week of weather as tropical systems bring plenty of rain and storms to regions across North America and the Caribbean. In Baja California and parts of northern Mexico, the remnants of Hurricane Odalys and the incoming Hurricane Polo will bring heavy rainfall, while Tropical Storm Rachel stays offshore but influences rain along the Mexican coast. Additionally, the Caribbean and parts of northern South America will experience increased rainfall due to tropical waves and local factors.
Mexican and Central America Weather
Today, a trough from California will help move moisture from Hurricane Odalys into northern Mexico, causing moderate showers, especially in Baja California and northern Chihuahua. As the day progresses, Hurricane Polo is set to impact Baja California Sur and the central Sonora coast with rainfall amounts between 50 and 100 mm. By Tuesday, Polo is expected to land in Sonora and weaken, but not before adding 50-100 mm of rain to areas like eastern Chihuahua and northwestern Sinaloa.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel will maintain its position off the coast of southwestern Mexico, pushing moisture into the Sierra Madre del Sur and beyond. This will cause rain, particularly from Guerrero to Jalisco, with up to 25-50 mm expected. Further, winds from the Pacific will drive moisture into places like the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, resulting in showers extending from Chiapas to Campeche and into eastern Honduras.
Caribbean Weather Outlook
In the Caribbean, a trough is moving from the eastern Gulf to the western Caribbean Sea, causing isolated storms in places like Western Cuba and the Bahamas with rainfall between 15-25 mm. This trough will strengthen by Tuesday, leading to organized storm activity over central-to-western Cuba and the development of moisture paths that could produce 20-35 mm of daily rain.
Over the Windward Islands, a tropical wave is generating moderate rains today, with another wave expected to follow on Wednesday, bringing more rainfall to the region.
South America's Weather
In northern South America, areas like the Colombian Andes and Ecuadorian Andes will see moderate rain due to local terrain and wind patterns. A tropical wave is set to enhance rain in northern Colombia by Wednesday, interacting with local geography to produce scattered storms.
Finally, the monsoon trough and another tropical wave will affect eastern Nicaragua and Costa Rica, resulting in thunderstorms and daily rainfall up to 15-25 mm over the coming days.
