Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2019

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

...CHANTAL CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 53.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the
southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday.
Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become
a tropical depression in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, mainly to the south.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
WTNT44 KNHC 210835
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal has changed little overnight. A small area of deep
convection has persisted northeast of the tropical storm's exposed
surface center. Given the steady-state structure of the cyclone, the
initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT
data.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track and intensity
forecasts, the most substantial of which is that Chantal is now
expected to become a remnant low within 96 h. The tropical storm is
surrounded by dry air and will be moving over marginal SSTs for the
next couple of days. As a result of this unfavorable environment,
Chantal is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 h. Most
of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose all of
its convection and become post-tropical soon after, but the official
forecast conservatively maintains the system as a tropical cyclone
for 72 h. The official intensity forecast is near a consensus of the
GFS, HMON, and HWRF models.

The tropical storm is moving quickly eastward, but is forecast to
slow and turn southeastward by Thursday. It should then turn toward
the south on Friday as it moves around the northeast periphery of a
low- to mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The
track guidance is in good agreement on the forecast, at least as
long as Chantal remains a tropical cyclone. The uncertainty in the
track forecast is higher after the cyclone becomes a remnant low,
but most of the guidance generally suggests that Chantal will become
trapped in weak steering flow and meander over the North Atlantic
for a couple days thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 40.3N  53.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 40.2N  50.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 39.6N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 38.4N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 37.2N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 35.3N  42.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 35.5N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z 37.5N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

000
FONT14 KNHC 210832
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019               
0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

000
WTNT24 KNHC 210831
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042019
0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N  53.7W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N  53.7W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N  54.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.2N  50.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.6N  46.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N  43.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.2N  42.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N  42.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 35.5N  44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.5N  44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N  53.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY