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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2019

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:42:47 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 15:24:53 GMT


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:42:47 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 15:24:53 GMT


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

000
WTNT31 KNHC 171742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.6 North, longitude 95.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast is expected
this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

000
WTNT41 KNHC 171503
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico.
The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the
associated convection is getting better organized.  However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across
southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF and
GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low.  On the
other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system.  Either way, it is likely that a
low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect
portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h.  Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone
Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge
watches/warnings are being issued.

The system should track generally northeastward in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model
guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h.  The forecast
track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the
UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track.  The forecast track
brings the system across the southeastern United States between
48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the
mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level
divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong
vertical shear.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is
unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical
tropical cyclone.  The system is expected to be fully extratropical
by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time.

Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions
of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.
Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground
level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to
Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the
north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 22.4N  95.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 23.7N  94.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  18/1200Z 25.8N  91.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 28.5N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 30.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z 35.5N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1200Z 37.5N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1200Z 38.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

000
FONT11 KNHC 171457
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   X(15)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   X(19)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   3(18)   X(18)
ROCKY MT NC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   8(26)   X(26)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   1(22)   X(22)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   2(22)   X(22)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   4(27)   X(27)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   3(27)   X(27)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   1(24)   X(24)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   X(24)   X(24)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)   1(30)   X(30)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   X(24)   X(24)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   1(27)   X(27)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  30(33)   X(33)   X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)   X(27)   X(27)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
AUGUSTA GA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  30(35)   X(35)   X(35)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  17(26)   X(26)   X(26)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  24(39)   X(39)   X(39)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
WAYCROSS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  13(22)   X(22)   X(22)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)   X(24)   X(24)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)   8(48)   X(48)   X(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   7(46)   X(46)   X(46)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  42(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  30(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  46(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   8(23)   X(23)   X(23)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)  32(32)  23(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)  43(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

000
WTNT21 KNHC 171456
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO
CLEARWATER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  95.7W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  95.7W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  95.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.7N  94.2W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.8N  91.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.9N  85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 150SE  60SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N  77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  95.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


NOAA Communications on Twitter

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IMAGES: Download files for U.S. forecast maps from @NOAA’s 2019-20 #WinterOutlook issued today at: https://t.co/nAXAGPfcts

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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#WinterOutlook 2019-20: “Short-term patterns will drive winter and could result in swings in temperature and precip… https://t.co/3uOUisBe2l

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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.@NOAA #WinterOutlook 2019-20: #Drought improvement expected in the U.S. Southeast https://t.co/Pd3ygENzy5 @NWS… https://t.co/mHff91SBn6

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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Just in: U.S. #WinterOutlook 2019-20 --> @NOAA forecast favors warmer-than-average temps for much of U.S., wetter-t… https://t.co/eIazIA88oi

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite

National Hurricane Center on Twitter

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For information on local impacts from PTC Sixteen, follow @NWSNewOrleans @NWSMobile @NWSTallahassee @NWSTampaBay

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida, where dangerous storm surge inundation of… https://t.co/SG80aK3ddX

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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10 AM CDT: NHC has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. Here are the Key Messages for that s… https://t.co/hkBUHNucf0

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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Potential Tropical Cyclone #Sixteen Advisory 1: Now available on the NHC website. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Oct 17, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, gusty winds and rough surf are possible across the northern Gulf… https://t.co/ARqMbA6ufB

Oct 16, 2019 replyretweetfavorite
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A disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next c… https://t.co/iPbXONsGQ3

Oct 16, 2019 replyretweetfavorite

NWS Local Statements

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Thu, 17 Oct 2019 15:40:51 GMT
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Thu, 17 Oct 2019 16:30:30 GMT
Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Thu, 17 Oct 2019 15:40:51 GMT
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Thu, 17 Oct 2019 16:30:30 GMT

NWS Public Advisories

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1A
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
Location: 22.6°N 95.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019


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