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Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2019
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:42:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 15:24:53 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:42:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Oct 2019 15:24:53 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1A
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019
000 WTNT31 KNHC 171742 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 95.5W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 95.5 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019
000 WTNT41 KNHC 171503 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico. The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the associated convection is getting better organized. However, a strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge watches/warnings are being issued. The system should track generally northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h. The forecast track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track. The forecast track brings the system across the southeastern United States between 48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States. Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical tropical cyclone. The system is expected to be fully extratropical by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time. Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the arrival of the center. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 22.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019
000
FONT11 KNHC 171457
PWSAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019
1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14)
RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18)
ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 8(26) X(26)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25)
FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) X(33) X(33)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) X(35) X(35)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) X(39) X(39)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) X(24)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) X(48) X(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 32(32) 23(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019
000 WTNT21 KNHC 171456 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC THU OCT 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO CLEARWATER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 95.7W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...190NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 95.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
NOAA Communications on Twitter
IMAGES: Download files for U.S. forecast maps from @NOAA’s 2019-20 #WinterOutlook issued today at: https://t.co/nAXAGPfcts
#WinterOutlook 2019-20: “Short-term patterns will drive winter and could result in swings in temperature and precip… https://t.co/3uOUisBe2l
.@NOAA #WinterOutlook 2019-20: #Drought improvement expected in the U.S. Southeast https://t.co/Pd3ygENzy5 @NWS… https://t.co/mHff91SBn6
Just in: U.S. #WinterOutlook 2019-20 --> @NOAA forecast favors warmer-than-average temps for much of U.S., wetter-t… https://t.co/eIazIA88oi
National Hurricane Center on Twitter
For information on local impacts from PTC Sixteen, follow @NWSNewOrleans @NWSMobile @NWSTallahassee @NWSTampaBay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida, where dangerous storm surge inundation of… https://t.co/SG80aK3ddX
10 AM CDT: NHC has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. Here are the Key Messages for that s… https://t.co/hkBUHNucf0
Potential Tropical Cyclone #Sixteen Advisory 1: Now available on the NHC website. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, gusty winds and rough surf are possible across the northern Gulf… https://t.co/ARqMbA6ufB
A disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next c… https://t.co/iPbXONsGQ3
NWS Local Statements
NWS Public Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1A
...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...
Location: 22.6°N 95.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019
Location: 22.6°N 95.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019