Atlantic Hurricane Tracking 2020

000
WTNT33 KNHC 051749
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
 
...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF MERIDA MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero
to Rio Lagartos.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur
through this afternoon.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center will move back over the southern Gulf of
Mexico this evening, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,
and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday evening.
 
Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that
Cristobal's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.  An elevated observing site from Isla Perez, north
of the Yucatan Peninsula, recently reported sustained winds of 43
mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Aripeka to Marco Island including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Indian Pass to Aripeka...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs to Indian Pass including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today within the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
along the northern Gulf coast beginning early Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:
 
Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central
Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast.
Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast.  Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley,
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches,
are expected.  Rises along smaller-order streams are possible
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This degree of rainfall is
expected to lead to flash flooding.
 
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El
Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of
35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.
 
Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would
continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

000
WTNT43 KNHC 051449
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system 
is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images.  A 
large convective band has become better defined over the northern 
and eastern portions of the circulation.  However, central 
convective features are still lacking.  The current intensity 
estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations.  
Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal 
this evening as the center moves back over water.  Additional 
intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this 
should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear.  The 
official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous 
advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model 
consensus.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about 
360/10 kt.  For the next couple of days Cristobal should move 
mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical 
anticyclones.  A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely 
after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some 
building of a ridge to the northeast.  The official track forecast 
is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the 
simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. 
 
Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is
expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches
the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge,
and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center 
of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus 
on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone.

 
Key Messages:
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in 
portions of Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to 
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the 
week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern 
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending 
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. 
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods 
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for 
more information.

2.  Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big 
Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the 
Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch 
has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should 
follow advice given by local emergency officials. 

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm force winds 
beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the 
Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a 
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will 
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals 
center.

4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from 
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas 
of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers 
possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 20.0N  89.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 21.7N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1200Z 23.8N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 25.6N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 27.3N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 29.1N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...ON COAST
 72H  08/1200Z 31.2N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z 36.7N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 43.0N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

000
FONT13 KNHC 051448
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   7(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  14(18)   X(18)   X(18)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  18(23)   1(24)   X(24)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  17(28)   1(29)   X(29)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   5( 6)  22(28)  18(46)   6(52)   X(52)   X(52)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  23(29)   1(30)   X(30)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   4( 5)  17(22)  22(44)  10(54)   X(54)   X(54)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  22(25)   1(26)   1(27)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)  24(28)   X(28)   1(29)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
ALEXANDRIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  16(18)   1(19)   X(19)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
LAFAYETTE LA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  17(20)   1(21)   1(22)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
FORT POLK LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   1(17)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34 22   3(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  9   2(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HAVANA         34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   9(15)  10(25)   1(26)   X(26)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

000
WTNT23 KNHC 051446
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE 
LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN MEXICO COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  89.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..270NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  89.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  90.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N  90.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N  90.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N  90.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 210SE   0SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N  90.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N  90.9W...ON COAST
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.2N  91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.7N  92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N  89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  89.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH