Samaria, MI Warnings, Watches and Advisories
SAFETY and DATA MESSAGE
Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water depth or fast flowing water/mud/debris from a flash flood will make road conditions unsafe. Do not rely soley on data presented here or other third-party websites - always check your official national and local weather service agency website, socials, radio and/or TV stations for making critical decisions related to weather events.
Please carefully read each posted Warning and Alert as it relates to the area(s) being affected. We may provide a wider range of issued severe weather warnings for surrounding cities and counties, so some alerts may not directly impact this location. This is done to help with preparing for severe weather that may overlap or be heading towards Samaria.
Use the Radar Maps link provided to understand the trajectory of a storm.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 17 at 3:22PM EST by NWS Northern Indiana
Recent snowfall along with gusty winds has led to drifting snow across the region. Very cold temperatures will allow any snow that drifts onto roadways to quickly freeze into black ice in some areas. This will especially affect north-south oriented roadways that are downwind of large open fields. Motorists should drive with additional caution in these areas. In addition, the gusty winds and temperatures falling back into the single digits will bring winds chills of 5 to 10 below zero by Tuesday morning.
Elkhart; Lagrange; Steuben; Noble; De Kalb; Starke; Pulaski; Marshall; Fulton; Whitley; Allen; White; Cass; Miami; Wabash; Huntington; Wells; Adams; Grant; Blackford; Jay; Northern La Porte; Eastern St. Joseph; Northern Kosciusko; Southern La Porte; Western St. Joseph; Southern Kosciusko; Cass; St. Joseph; Branch; Hillsdale; Northern Berrien; Southern Berrien; Williams; Fulton; Defiance; Henry; Paulding; Putnam; Van Wert; Allen
Moderate
Observed
Expected
February 17th, 2025 03:22:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 03:22:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 11:00:00 pm EST
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:47PM EST until February 18 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Marquette MI
* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 29 below expected. * WHERE...Gogebic, Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, Ontonagon, and Southern Houghton Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
Keweenaw; Ontonagon; Houghton; Gogebic; Southern Houghton
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:47:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:47:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 06:00:00 am EST
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:47PM EST until February 18 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Marquette MI
* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 30 below expected, with a few isolated spots to or below 35 below possible. * WHERE...Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Iron, Marquette, and Menominee Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 35 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
Baraga; Marquette; Iron; Dickinson; Menominee; Delta
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:47:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:47:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 06:00:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:45PM EST until February 17 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Marquette MI
* WHAT...Lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations up to one inch. * WHERE...Keweenaw, Northern Houghton, and Southern Houghton Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills down to 20 below zero are expected tonight. Avoid time outside as frostbite could set in within 30 minutes or less.
Keweenaw; Houghton; Southern Houghton
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 07:00:00 pm EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:45PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Marquette MI
* WHAT...Lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Ontonagon County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Travel could be very difficult at times as the blowing snow could greatly reduce visibilities. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills down to 25 below zero could be seen tonight. Avoid your time outside as frostbite could set in within 30 minutes or less.
Ontonagon
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 06:00:00 am EST
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued February 17 at 2:45PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Marquette MI
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 8 inches. The greatest snow accumulations will be south of Grand Marais and east of Munising, impacting M-77 in particular. Snow accumulations will be lowest around Trenary. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph near the immediate lakeshore will allow for near whiteout conditions at times near the shoreline and along and north of M-28. * WHERE...Alger and Northern Schoolcraft Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills down to 20 below zero could be seen tonight. Avoid time outside as frostbite could set in within 30 minutes or less.
Alger; Northern Schoolcraft
Severe
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 06:00:00 am EST
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued February 17 at 2:45PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Marquette MI
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches, with the greatest amounts north and west of Newberry. The blowing snow could bring near whiteout conditions along and north of M-28. * WHERE...Luce County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills down to 20 below zero could be seen tonight. Avoid time outside as frostbite could set in within 30 minutes or less.
Luce
Severe
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:45:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 06:00:00 am EST
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:32PM EST until February 18 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as -20 to -25 expected, especially near the St. Mary's River and Sault Ste. Marie. * WHERE...Central Chippewa, Eastern Mackinac, and Southeast Chippewa Counties, and Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Wind chill values can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.
Central Chippewa; Southeast Chippewa; Eastern Mackinac; Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:32:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:32:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 10:45:00 pm EST
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:32PM EST until February 18 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as -15 to -20 expected, especially away from Lake Michigan. * WHERE...All of northern lower Michigan, including Beaver Island. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not taken.
Emmet; Cheboygan; Presque Isle; Leelanau; Antrim; Otsego; Montmorency; Alpena; Benzie; Grand Traverse; Kalkaska; Crawford; Oscoda; Alcona; Manistee; Wexford; Missaukee; Roscommon; Ogemaw; Iosco; Gladwin; Arenac; Beaver Island and surrounding islands; Charlevoix
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:32:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:32:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 10:45:00 pm EST
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 to 6 inches, generally along / north of M-72. Lesser accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in southern Kalkaska County. Wind gusts up to 30mph will create considerable reductions in visibility, along with blowing and drifting snow, especially in open areas. * WHERE...Kalkaska County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow, particularly in open / prone areas. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Kalkaska
Severe
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches through Tuesday morning. Gusty winds up to 30mph will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially in open / prone areas. * WHERE...Cheboygan County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. Reductions in visibility are anticipated due to blowing and drifting snow. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Cheboygan
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches. Gusty winds up to 30mph will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially in open / prone areas. * WHERE...Emmet County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. Reductions in visibility are anticipated due to blowing and drifting snow. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the Monday evening commute and potentially the Tuesday morning commute as well.
Emmet
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Western Mackinac County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Western Mackinac
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Tuesday morning. Gusty winds up to 30mph will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially in open / prone areas. * WHERE...Charlevoix, Crawford, and Otsego Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Otsego; Crawford; Charlevoix
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches. Locally higher amounts possible. Wind gusts up to 30mph will create considerable reductions in visibility, along with blowing and drifting snow, especially in open areas. * WHERE...Antrim County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Antrim
Severe
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday morning. Gusty winds up to 30mph will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially in open / prone areas. * WHERE...A portion of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Leelanau; Benzie; Grand Traverse; Manistee; Wexford; Missaukee
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches. Gusty winds up to 30mph will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially in open / prone areas. * WHERE...Presque Isle County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Presque Isle
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 2:11PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations between 3 to 6 inches through Tuesday morning; heaviest along and west of M-123 and up to Whitefish Point. * WHERE...Western Chippewa County. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Western Chippewa
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 02:11:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 02:15:00 am EST
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 1:49PM EST until February 18 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Grand Rapids MI
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. Gusty winds will also lead to drifting snow especially for north/south roads. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Visibility and road conditions may change rapidly over short distances in lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.
Mason; Lake; Oceana; Muskegon; Ottawa; Allegan; Van Buren
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 01:49:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 01:49:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 10:00:00 pm EST
Cold Weather Advisory
Cold Weather Advisory issued February 17 at 1:12PM EST until February 18 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Detroit/Pontiac MI
* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero expected. * WHERE...Bay, Huron, Lapeer, Midland, Saginaw, Sanilac, St. Clair, and Tuscola Counties. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
Midland; Bay; Huron; Saginaw; Tuscola; Sanilac; Lapeer; St. Clair
Moderate
Likely
Expected
February 17th, 2025 01:12:00 pm EST
February 17th, 2025 01:12:00 pm EST
February 18th, 2025 09:00:00 am EST
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 17 at 11:52AM EST by NWS Grand Rapids MI
Bands of lake effect snow were streaming inland off of Lake Michigan. Gusty west winds, over 30 mph at times, were also leading to blowing snow. The combination of these two were causing pockets of very low visibility that were dipping down under a half mile in few spots. Also, north/south roads could see drifting that may lead to hazardous travel conditions. Motorists should be alert for sudden changes to the visibility and be prepared for locally slick travel through the evening commute.
Osceola; Clare; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Montcalm; Gratiot; Kent; Ionia; Clinton; Barry; Eaton; Ingham; Calhoun; Jackson
Moderate
Observed
Expected
February 17th, 2025 11:52:00 am EST
February 17th, 2025 11:52:00 am EST
February 17th, 2025 06:00:00 pm EST
Hydrologic Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook issued February 13 at 5:38PM EST by NWS Gaylord MI
ESFAPX THE SPRING 2025 FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN INDICATES A NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING DUE TO SNOW MELT WITHIN MAJOR EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS. THIS OUTLOOK COVERS CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH INCLUDES THE PINE RIVER BASIN...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN ENCOMPASSING THE AU SABLE... BOARDMAN...MANISTEE...RIFLE...AND TOBACCO RIVER BASINS. THE FIRST TABLE BELOW LISTS THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE (MINOR FLOODING)...AS WELL AS MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD LEVELS FOR THE SIX FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE GAYLORD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR... MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS: THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING : FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE (%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 54 12 7 <5 <5 <5 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 40 12 8 <5 <5 <5 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 65 63 <5 <5 <5 <5 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED CHANCE FOR REACHING FLOOD STAGE (CS) AND THE CLIMATIC NORMAL (HS). FOR EXAMPLE...THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...WITH A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET...HAS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 42 PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE NORMAL. DURING THE 90 DAY PERIOD LISTED...THE TYPICAL PROBABILITY OF THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN REACHING FLOOD STAGE IS 12 PERCENT. THE NEXT TABLE SHOWS THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (HIGH FLOW FORECAST): ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.5 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 5.4 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.2 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.6 8.0 8.9 9.4 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 8.4 9.2 10.3 11.6 13.1 14.4 15.6 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.7 9.3 CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN...THE AU SABLE RIVER NEAR RED OAK...AND THE RIFLE RIVER NEAR STERLING. ELSEWHERE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. THE LAST TABLE INDICATES THE CHANCE THAT A PARTICULAR RIVER LOCATION COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGES IN THE SPECIFIED 90 DAY PERIOD (LOW FLOW FORECAST): ...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025 LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :MANISTEE RIVER SHERMAN 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 :BOARDMAN RIVER MAYFIELD--BROWN B 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :AU SABLE RIVER RED OAK 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 :RIFLE RIVER STERLING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :PINE RIVER RUDYARD 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 :TOBACCO RIVER BEAVERTON 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH IN ORDER TO GIVE ADVANCE NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...AND INCORPORATE CURRENT RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES...AND BOTH 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. ACTUAL RIVER CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK IF FUTURE CONDITIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST CONDITIONS... OR IF ICE JAMS DEVELOP. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS... ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL AND SNOWPACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD PROBABILITIES AT SEVERAL GAGING LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS (JUNE-AUGUST) WAS GENERALLY FROM 75 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN JUNE WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE SUMMER WITH PRECIPITATION 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINGS STARTED TO DRY OUT IN JULY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THOUGH MOST AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A SIMILAR TREND WAS NOTED IN AUGUST. PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL (SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER) STARTED BELOW NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER (LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND OCTOBER (25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL). BUT NOVEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...MORE THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN ANTRIM/WESTERN OTSEGO/NORTHWEST KALKASKA COUNTIES MAINLY DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL) CONCENTRATED OVER THE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS. TRAVERSE CITY RECORDED ITS SECOND SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON RECORD (48.2 INCHES)...GAYLORD ITS FOURTH SNOWIEST DECEMBER (57.9 INCHES)...AND HOUGHTON LAKE ITS 9TH SNOWIEST (23.4 INCHES). JANUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION WAS DEPENDENT ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT AREAS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED MAINLY BETWEEN GRAND TRAVERSE BAY AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN (BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY M-68 AND M-72 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH RESPECTIVELY)...THE TYPICAL LAKE MICHIGAN SNOW BELT REGIONS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES OF 100 TO 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL OCCURRED OVER NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY ADJACENT TO WHITEFISH BAY. SAULT STE. MARIE RECORDED THEIR SECOND SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD (58.4 INCHES). AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...TOTAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT SAULT STE. MARIE...GAYLORD...AND TRAVERSE CITY HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED THEIR NORMAL SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL. HOWEVER ALL MAJOR CLIMATE SITES HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR RUNNING 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE SEASON...EXCEPT FOR ALPENA AT 88 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH IS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER FROM M-55 NORTH TO M-32. SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (NORTH OF M-32) AND IN THE 20TH TO 30TH PERCENTILE ELSEWHERE. STREAMFLOWS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN RIVERS ARE BELOW NORMAL ON THE AU SABLE AND MANISTEE RIVERS...AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE WITHE FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS DUE TO ICE ACTIVITY. LINGERING D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF OSCODA...ALCONA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW...IOSCO...GLADWIN...AND ARENAC COUNTIES. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF PRESQUE ISLE...LEELANAU...MONTMORENCY...ALPENA...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE...KALKASKA...CRAWFORD...MANISTEE...WEXFORD...AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... THE CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY IS LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING (MARCH THROUGH MAY) INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE TREND WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES (EQUAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE... NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION)....AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 27, 2025. LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS SUCH AS THOSE GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES ARE ISSUED DURING THE LAST WEEK OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/APX ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE RIVER INFORMATION...INCLUDING GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION GIVEN IN THE ABOVE TABLES...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN STREAMS.
Emmet; Cheboygan; Presque Isle; Leelanau; Antrim; Otsego; Montmorency; Alpena; Benzie; Grand Traverse; Kalkaska; Crawford; Oscoda; Alcona; Manistee; Wexford; Missaukee; Roscommon; Ogemaw; Iosco; Gladwin; Arenac; Western Chippewa; Central Chippewa; Southeast Chippewa; Western Mackinac; Eastern Mackinac; Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island; Beaver Island and surrounding islands; Charlevoix
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February 13th, 2025 05:38:00 pm EST
February 13th, 2025 05:38:00 pm EST
February 20th, 2025 05:45:00 pm EST
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Currently
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14°F |
30.19in
Barometer 57%
Humidity West 12.7mph Wind |
Partly Cloudy |