Tropical System Alert with Heavy Rain and Wind - 10-09 to 10-13

Tropical Storm Belt — The coming days will see several tropical systems impacting Caribbean and Central American regions. A weak tropical wave is bringing rain to Jamaica and Cuba, while a low-level trough affects the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands. In Mexico, Hurricane Simon is causing significant rain, particularly in Michoacan and Guerrero, with totals potentially exceeding 500mm. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is expected to affect northern Baja California with increased precipitation.

Caribbean Overview

Jamaica and Cuba will see isolated thunderstorms today due to a tropical wave. The wave will move into the northwest Caribbean by Saturday, increasing humidity over Honduras and Nicaragua and shifting to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and Guatemala by Sunday. Expect daily rain of 25 to 30mm.

Low-Level Trough Effects

A low-level trough is moving towards the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands from Friday night into Saturday morning. It will then move to Hispaniola on Saturday, reaching Jamaica and southeast Cuba by Sunday. Rainfall could reach up to 15mm daily.

Windward Islands Weather

Friday will be typically seasonal with potential for showers in the Windward Islands. By Saturday, a trough will bring more moisture and instability, with rain possibly reaching 20mm in Barbados and surrounding islands through Sunday.

Central America Conditions

The monsoon trough will bring isolated showers through Saturday across Central America, with rain up to 40mm in higher areas. Sunday will see drier air reducing rainfall.

Pacific Coast Activities

Showers and storms are expected along the Pacific coast of Colombia and Ecuador, assisted by moist winds. Rainfall peaks will shift northward along the Ecuadorian coast from Friday into the weekend.

Mexico's Hurricane Alert

Mexico will experience moisture from Hurricane Isaias, bringing rain to Chiapas and Tabasco. In the west, Hurricane Simon's feeder bands will hit Guerrero and Michoacan, with rain potentially surpassing 500mm. Jalisco and Colima might see 400 to 500mm. Nayarit and Sinaloa could receive 100 to 150mm by Monday morning.

Baja California Impacts

Tropical Storm Rachel will approach northern Baja California by Saturday, with increased rain expected due to it merging with another weather system. Sonora and Sinaloa will also see more rain due to tropical influences over the weekend.